Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2008 22:42:10 +1100
I have already received some feedback on the Microsoft blog. Earlier
today, this arrived from Sydney Webmaster, websurfer, programmer and
Google-watcher, Brian Robson. It is a timeline that he has imaginatively
extended into the future. Brian writes:
I like your open source points. Their hostility to open source is a
big problem for them as you say. In the old days everyone happily
tested Windows for them etc etc - these people are now building the
open source movement, and there is no turning back. M$ cannot return
to the old days where everyone supported M$ because it standardised
things, and made life easier with DOS and Windows 3.1. I still
remember being conned by the line "It's not a proper operating system
if it does not launch with a GUI." (like Windows 95 did, windows 3.1
was thus inferior somehow. Current problem is the poor stuff written
by journalists in PC magazines.
So we would have, a timeline in decades for M$:
|
|
1975-1984 |
The invention of the integrated circuit. The beginning of home
computing. The beginnings of the desktop PC. Hard drives too expensive,
but dozens of formats for floppy disks and hundreds of manufacturers of
PCs. Everything very expensive, but simply amazing to have a real computer
at home. The advent of M$ and the DOS era, and the beginnings of
standardisation for PCs with the release of the first IBM PCs. Most PC
manufacturers amalgamate or perish. |
|
1985-1994 |
The Apple Mac, the IBM AT and standardisation of the "IBM PC". The
era peaks with Windows 3.11 in 1992. The dBase era ends, replaced by
Microsoft Access. The WordStar era ends replaced by Word. The Lotus 123
era ends, replaced by Excel. Microsoft destroys DR-DOS but denies this.
Office 4 and Word 6 is more than enough for most people. Microsoft builds
a desktop monopoly. I buy a computer in 1988 for $3800 including a colour
monitor and a 20MB hard drive. Bulletin board systems and elementary
message sending for computer enthusiasts until the public Internet
arrives. |
|
1995-2004 |
Everyone changes to 32 bit computing. Enthusiasts queue up at
midnight to buy Windows 95 on the launch day. Microsoft entrenches its
position on the desktop and everyone has to buy upgrades for Windows 95
then Windows 98 then Windows XP. Further maturity in office suites with
Office 97 and Office 2000 and Office 2003. Beginnings of the Internet,
with really difficult to use web sites and poor search and huge graphics
and wacky navigation. Microsoft makes Internet Explorer the top browser by
bolting it into Windows and giving it away with Windows so that Netscape
is strangled. Upgrading is forced on users because many programs will not
run correctly on earlier versions of Windows for trivial reasons. USB
arrives, but is not generally available for Windows 95, forcing massive
upgrades to Windows 98 and beyond. |
|
2005-2014 |
The juggernaut starts to falter. Windows Vista is barely better than
Windows XP and has more frills than people need. Users annoyed with the M$
collusion with the movie industry and the record industry. Users become
heartily sick of spam, spyware and Internet criminals. Firefox provides
serious competition for IE, especially in Europe. The Internet improves
immensely and the desktop matters less. HiFi and electronics shops are
full of portable gadgets, and everything connects to everything with
either Ethernet or USB. Sales are enormous, but profits are quite low as a
percentage, rather like supermarkets. Microsoft discontinues support for
older operating systems including Windows 95 and Windows 98. Commercial
software producers hop on the bandwagon and modify their software so it
will not run on out-of-date operating systems. Microsoft is increasingly
left behind by new startups and new technologies, and especially
problematic is open source software which is slowly replacing closed
source software in corporations and government. In a last ditch effort to
monopolise the Internet, M$ buys the huge Internet company Yahoo, but
during the merger, the rival search engine Google poaches all the top
developers. However buying Yahoo is too little too late and over a five
year period the acquisition makes little difference and becomes
essentially worthless. Huge on-line advertising revenue goes instead to
the main search engine Google and to niche players and to new startups and
to companies that previously were dominant in magazines and newspapers.
Well documented cases emerge in the third world where Microsoft is selling
software very cheaply to lock in buyers to expensive upgrades later. Some
instances involve huge corruption by government officials. The next
upgrade to Windows, code named Custer, is rejected by the market place,
who somehow see Microsoft as out of touch or not the latest fashion,
despite their huge investment in research and development. Computer clubs
no longer exist, computer fairs are not viable, and home computer
magazines disappear, replaced by lifestyle magazines about electronic
gadgets covering sound, movies, music, networking, home entertainment and
computing. Microsoft share price slowly slides, but Bill, Steve and Paul
have already cashed in. |
|
2015-2024 |
Packaged software industry collapses. Adobe is replaced by free
software. Anti virus software is no longer needed on PCs. Strict laws put
spammers and net criminals in jail worldwide. Most word processing and
spreadsheet work is done via the net and the file format is an open
standard, and actually does not matter to the user. Microsoft tries
desperately to embrace open source, but the open source movement publicly
rejects them for all their past secrecy and animosity. The decline of
Microsoft. Share price tumbles further. Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer now
both retired. Company makes major strategic mistakes. Consulting companies
that support and endorse only the Windows platform are no longer viable.
Desktop no longer matters. All hotel and motel rooms and most cafes have
wireless Internet provided for free. Software patents no longer available
in the USA, they are not in the public interest and most ideas are obvious
anyway. It's better to manufacture it quickly than tell everybody by
lodging a patent. Virtually all gadgets now surf the net without help from
Microsoft, they play music, take photos, schedule meetings, pay bills,
send text messages etc etc. Several large companies and governments
formally refuse to deal with Microsoft. High speed wireless networking is
everywhere in developed countries, and is free just like having lighting
in a cafe is free. |
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