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War With Iran |
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Date: Sat, 7 Mar 2026 23:02:52 +1000On Sunday Morning on the 1st of March, we woke to the extraordinary news that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, had possibly been assassinated. |
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ABC News reported that there had been a joint US-Israeli air strike targeting Khamenei's compound in Tehran on the 28th of February which killed him. Donald Trump, who since he assumed office, had managed to dominate the news cycle in the 403 days that preceded this event, predictably, inserted himself into this headline, declaring Khamenei to be one of the most vicious and evil leaders in history and urging the citizens of Iran to rise up and take back their country.
On the 2nd of March (the 1st of March Iranian time) there were reports that Iranian state media had confirmed that Khamenei had been killed in the air attack that also killed his daughter, granddaughter, son-in-law, and daughter-in-law.
Trump had not sought approval from congress for the action and had launched it while there was supposedly negotiations with Iran. Since he first cancelled the JCPOA after he assumed office in 2017, Trump had pursued policies that seemed to have been motivated by spite rather than any consistent strategy. During his first term, these included:
- Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) in January 2017;
- Scolding the member nations of NATO for "not paying enough" at the Brussels Summit in May 2017, and then, later, in July 2017, demanding that they should increase the spending from 2% to 4%.
- Announcing that the US would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in July 2017, and hinting that the US might break it.
- Withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018;
- Withdrawing from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in June 2018;
- Withdrawing from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in December 2018;
- Withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, in August 2019;
- Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement in November 2020;
Two of these, the JCPOA and INF were treaties that limited nuclear weapons. And on the face of it, anything to do with limiting nuclear weapons would seem to be matters that should be viewed as important and perhaps even "existential" by most rational human beings. However, the main motivation for withdrawing from the JCPOA seems to have been resentment that the treaty had been finalised by the Obama administration rather than an action that formed part of anything that even slightly resembled a coherent strategy. And there doesn't seem to have been a "rational" explanation for why the US should withdraw from the INF.
Trump also introduced tariffs on China in 2018 and was often critical of the UN. The administration cut funding to the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), World Health Organisation (WHO) and the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF).
During his first term, Trump was constrained by appointments of "normal" Republican candidates, that had been foisted upon him, mainly due to his unpreparedness to actually take office, in the face of, what seemed at the time to be overwhelming predictions of a Clinton win. This led to a scramble to find people to serve in administration and many of the people that were appointed were in Trump 1.0 were (so called) "normies". They would tell him things like: "No Mr. President ... You can't put troops on the street to shoot US citizens for exercising their first amendment rights and expressing their disapproval of you", "No Sir, You cannot impose a 150% tariff on all Chinese goods, that would tank the US (and global) economy", "No Mr. President, You cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO ... That would require legislation passed by congress and the senate" ... etc, etc.
After his attempt to over-throw the results of 2020 election, Trump retreated to Mar-a-Lago, taking a trove of stolen classified documents, and fulminated about his defeat. Thanks to the cowardice of the Republican senators who refused to vote to impeach him and the sluggish, unrealistic machinations of the US DOJ, that failed to prosecute Trump for his many crimes, including sexual assault, tax evasion, fraud, election interference, sedition, blackmail, co-operating with hostile foreign agents, etc. ... He was able to complete a hostile takeover of the Republican party, and utilising a blueprint, named "Project 2025", foolishly, provided to him by the "Heritage Foundation", put together a plan of action that would ensure that a future Trump administration, if it should eventuate, would consist only of loyalists and sycophants.
And it as it turned out a slim majority of US voters were OK with this. When presented with a choice between a smart articulate woman of 59 and an almost incoherent 79 year old man, wearing orange make-up and rambling about "eating cats and dogs" they decided "Yeah we want that guy".
Upon assuming office, Trump set about issuing executive orders and generally completing the dismantling of all existing treaties, trade agreements and accepted norms. The Whitehouse oval office was transformed into weird reality TV show bedecked with gaudy fake gold trim. It culminated with the so called "Liberation day" on the 2nd of April 2025, when Trump presented the world with placards of fatuous and potentially destructive tariffs.
Over the ensuing 7 months the tariffs were turned on-off, on-off, almost on a weekly basis. At first, markets slavishly responded to these stimuli, as Trump played with the switch like a toddler who finally discovers a switch that can turn a light on and off.
Trump's supporters stayed loyal, despite the fact that his actions contradicted the slogan on their red hats which expressed their approval for Making America Great Again. In fact the dismantling of the post WWII international order which had been responsible for the last 80 years of American success is proving to be a comprehensive plan for diluting and undermining American influence and will most likely lead to making America relatively weaker, at a time when China has assumed the role of the world's manufacturing headquarters, and is rapidly catching up in scientific and technological research and development.
Having weakened NATO, NAFTA, the WTO, renewable energy developments and trust in the USA, Trump is now threatening the petrodollar, which could also threaten the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency. It may turn out that all of the qualified economists and clinical psychologists in the world are wrong, and Donald J. Trump, is right. That he is indeed the world's greatest stable genius and all around expert on everything. Thanks to the voters in the USA, we will soon discover which paradigm is correct, as we continue with this live experiment with the US (and the global) economy.